Conneticut vs San Diego State betting odds, predictions, pick and promos
The Connecticut Huskies have looked fully prepared to defend last season’s championship title but will face their toughest test thus far against the San Diego State Aztecs.
These two teams will be looking to represent the East region of the bracket. Both sides enter with a ton of momentum having not received much of a challenge from their opponent in the previous round. They will face off in Boston, Massachusetts at the TD Garden.
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Connecticut (1) vs San Diego State (5) betting preview
The reigning National Champions are off to as great of a start as possible in this year’s tournament. They have taken down Stetson and Northwestern by a combined margin of 56 points. While the results have been convincing, this should not be a surprise. Connecticut finished the season as the top-ranked team in the AP Poll and 1st in the NET Rankings. Despite head coach Dan Hurley attempting to portray the team as an underdog to the media, the Huskies have been regarded as the title favorite coming into the tournament and have only cemented this expectation.
Overall they have gone 33-3 this season and 18-2 in Big East play. They have the best offensive rating in the country and produced 81.6 points per game which is the 21st-best rate in the country. They also rank 19th in defensive rating and have held opponents to the 12th-fewest points per game at 63.9. The Huskies rank 3rd in assists, 46th in rebounding, 5th in field-goal percentage, and turn the ball over at the 28th-best rate. They also allow the 7th-fewest rebounds to opponents and opposing teams shoot just 39.5% when facing them which is the 8th-best rate in the country.
Connecticut is loaded with future NBA talent. Five players average 10.8 points per game or greater with Tristen Newton leading the team. Newton has averaged 15.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists this season and scored 20 points in the victory over Northwestern last round. 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan is a dominant force inside and has averaged 12.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game. He is a commanding shot-blocking presence and can change the game with his ability to send away shots. Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Stephon Castle each also play a significant role.
San Diego State also has had no problems reaching this stage of the NCAA Tournament. While UAB gave them a bit of a fight in the opening round, they secured the 69-65 win. The Aztecs then blew out Yale 85-57 in the round of 32. They ended the season as the 24th-ranked team in the AP Poll and 20th in the NET Rankings. While they are considered the biggest longshot to win the entire tournament at this point based on the futures market, this is mostly to do with this tough Sweet 16 matchup.
On the season, San Diego State has gone 26-10 and 11-7 in conference play. They play a defensive-oriented style of basketball and held opponents to just 66.2 points per game. They rank 28th in the country in points allowed and defensive rating while playing the 53rd most difficult strength of schedule. The Aztecs also limit opponents to the 15th-best field goal percentage as teams are shooting just 40.3% when facing San Diego State. They struggle more on the offensive end, producing 74.7 points per game which is the 144th-best rate in the country. San Diego State has struggled to shoot the ball, connecting on just 44.2% of their shots from the field and 31.8% from beyond the three-point arc. This ranks 212th and 300th in the country.
Jaedon Ledee headlines the team and is the only player averaging in double-figures. He has averaged 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds this season while connecting on 56.4% of his shots from the field and 45.2% of his three-point attempts. Ledee is the team’s most efficient offensive option and tallied 32 points in the opening round and 26 in the most recent victory over Yale. San Diego State goes as the second-team All-American forward goes and he has proven to be prepared for the challenge thus far. It will take an impressive performance in this round for the Aztects to have a chance but Ledee has shined on the biggest stage to this point.
Uconn vs San Diego State odds
Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook.
- Spread: UConn -11 at -110 odds, San Diego State +11 at -109 odds
- Moneyline: UConn -590, San Diego State +420
- Total: Over/Under 136 Points
Connecticut vs San Diego State analysis
While San Diego State has looked sharp throughout the season and in the tournament, UConn will be a new level of opponent. The Aztecs went 20-1 when facing Quad 2,3, and 4 opponents but just 4-9 in Quad 1 matchups. Their most impressive victories were over Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Utah State, and New Mexico but Connecticut is on another level compared to these.
The biggest question will be if San Diego State’s defense will be able to stand up to the Huskies' offense. While the Aztecs allow just 66.2 points per game on the season, UConn has been held below this number just twice all season. San Diego State lacks the offensive production to be able to stick with Connecticut so this will need to be a defensive matchup for the team to have a chance.
It also will be interesting to see if Jaedon Ledee can maintain his offensive effectiveness against this UConn defense. Expect Donovan Clingan to get the primary task of matching up with Ledee and for his size to be a factor. Ledee has an athletic advantage, but the 7-foot-2 frame of Clingan will surely be a factor. If UConn can neutralize the San Diego State star, it is unlikely other players will be able to pick up the slack. However, this is easier said than done and Ledee has played like one of the tournament’s brightest stars thus far.
Connecticut vs San Diego State pick
While San Diego State is a more worthy opponent than they have been given credit, UConn looks to be on another level compared to everyone else in college basketball in these early tournament games. The defending champions have looked even more dominant of late and will impose themselves in this matchup. The Huskies check every box you look for in a team ready to cut down the nets and for good reason.
The offensive struggles of San Diego State are too much to overlook. Connecticut can win in a variety of ways but it will take a slow defensive matchup for San Diego State to have a chance. Ultimately, expect UConn to be able to speed up the pace and take control of the matchup. The 11-point spread is significant but the Huskies have secured 22 of their 33 victories by this margin or greater this year.
Expect this to result in a higher-scoring matchup than San Diego State is comfortable with and for UConn to reach the upper 70s or low 80s on their own. As a result, expect the scoring to clear the 136-point margin and hit the over. The Huskies have too much talent to keep neutralized and the game will break open in the second half in their favor.
🏀 Bet on Uconn's -11 spread and over 136 points with BetRivers 🏀
Connecticut vs San Diego State info
- Who: Uconn (1) vs San Diego State (5)
- Date: Thursday, March 28th
- Time: 7:39 PM EST
- Venue: TD Garden (Boston, Massachusetts)
- Where to watch: TBS/TruTV
About the author
Sean Barnard
Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.
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