Dayton vs Nevada betting odds, predictions, pick and promos
Facing off as the 7 vs 10 matchup in the West region of the bracket, Dayton and Nevada will play this matchup in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Both programs had impressive regular seasons but stumbled in their conference tournaments. Each team was bounced in the conference quarterfinals but showed enough in the regular season to secure their NCAA Tournament opportunity and have some intriguing similarities in their styles of play.
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Dayton (7) vs Nevada (10) betting preview
Dayton went 24-7 in the regular season and 14-4 in A-10 Conference play this season. They have played a more defensive-oriented style this season than is traditionally the case with the Flyers, holding opponents to the 31st-fewest points by allowing just 66.3 points per game. On the offensive side, they produce 74.7 points per game which ranks 147th, but they rank 24th in offensive rating.
They also rank 31st in the league in field goal percentage, 27th in turnovers, and 3rd in the country in three-point percentage by connecting on 40.2% of their attempts as a team. Dayton concluded the season as the 23rd-ranked team according to the NET Rankings and this will mark their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017. The Flyers took care of business against lesser opponents this year going 15-0 against Quad 3 and 4 opponents.
They struggled a bit in the tougher matchups, going 8-7 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups. Their most impressive victories were over St. John’s, SMU, Cincinnati, VCU, and LSU. Some of their more concerning losses were at the hands of George Mason, Loyola Chicago, and Duquesne.
Nevada enters this season with a similar squad to last year’s team that lost in the First Four last season. The Wolfpack returned 68.4% of the minutes played from last year’s roster and 67.7% of the points scored. They are a well-rounded squad that went 26-7 in the regular season and 13-5 in conference play.
On the season they produced 76.4 points per game which ranks 96th in the country and allowed 67.1 points per game which is the 49th-best rate. They also rank in the top 76 in both offensive and defensive ratings. Nevada ranks 41st in the country in field goal percentage, 46th in three-point percentage, and gets to the free-throw lines at the 9th-best rate. They finished the season ranked 34th in the Net Rankings and went 20-1 in their matchups against Quad 2,3, and 4 opponents.
The Wolfpack did not fare as well against steeper competition- going just 6-6 in Quad 1 matchups. Their most impressive victories occurred over Colorado State, Washington, TCU, San Diego State, Utah State, and New Mexico State. The more concerning losses came at the hands of Wyoming and Drake.
Dayton vs Nevada odds
Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook:
- Spread: Nevada is -1.5 favorites at -110 odds, Dayton +1.5 at -110 odds.
- Moneyline: Nevada -121, Dayton +100.
- Total: Over/Under 136.5 points.
Dayton vs Nevada analysis
It is unfortunate that Dayton suffered the loss of Malachi Smith who has battled injuries throughout his college tenure. It ultimately was a meniscus tear that shut down his season and lowered the ceiling of Dayton as a team. However, DaRon Holmes II has picked up the slack and stood out as the Flyers' best player this season.
On the season he has averaged 20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.1 blocks per game. The 6-foot-10 forward has established himself as a reliable pick-and-pop option and impacts the game in a variety of ways. Holmes II is surrounded by shooters with three players in their starting lineup shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc or better.
Koby Brea will be the biggest threat as he is averaging 10.9 points per game and connecting on 49.2% of his three-point attempts while launching six long-range shots per game. While their 23.7 three-point attempts per game ranks just 106th in the country, their 40.2% is enough to put a game out of reach if Nevada gives them the opportunity.
Nevada is headlined by 6-foot-3 guard Jarod Lucas who is averaging 17.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while connecting on 39.7% of his three-point attempts. Nick Davidson also provides balance from the forward position averaging 12.1 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. It also should be noted that Nevada ranks 38th in defensive three-point scoring rate by holding opponents to a 31.2% rate.
This will be especially valuable in this matchup and put to the test at a level they have rarely seen this season. The Wolfpack have more diverse ways they can score with Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear each being capable of creating off the dribble and generating efficient offense. Despite being the lower-seeded team, Nevada finds itself as the betting favorite which speaks to the belief from Vegas. This is a high-variance game with the three-point shooting of each team set to play a major role in dictating the victor.
Dayton vs Nevada pick
With three-point shooting variance set to be such a driving force in which team comes out on top, this is a risky wager in either team’s direction. Since Nevada has more ways to win and a more trustworthy backcourt duo, Vegas seems to have it right with making them the favorite. They are better equipped than most teams to negate Dayton’s effectiveness from beyond the arc, but the Flyers play at a level that they have not fully been tested this year.
Look for Nevada to make this a grind-it-out type of game and for the pace of play to be slow. Dayton is capable of catching fire and controlling momentum, which is what Nevada cannot afford to happen. Both of these teams rank well below the Division 1 average offensive possession length.Expect this to be even more intentional from Nevada’s perspective as they look to soak the clock and control the tempo. As a result, expect this game to remain under the 136.5 total.
Dayton vs Nevada game info
- Who: Dayton vs Nevada
- Date: Thursday, March 21st
- Time: 4:30 EST
- Venue: Delta Center (Salt Lake City, Utah)
- Where to watch: TBS
About the author
Sean Barnard
Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.
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